I have been on OddsJam for about 8 months. Here is what I can tell you. Their algorithms are awful, and their recommended bets should be avoided. Customer service has no understanding of the basic math behind any of it, and the process and site, is based upon the old school scam of giving everyone a free pick. You remember that old school scam where you call a number and they tell you a team to bet on for Sunday's football games? The phone number would tell 1/2 the callers one bet, and the other half the other side. 50% of the people win and think the guy is a genius, and sign up for his weekly picks and start paying money.
Oddsjam is a much more organized, resourceful, and complicated version of that.
Here is the issue with OddsJam. Their entire process is built on a foundational theory that is completely opinion and not based on math. The theory being that they are correctly calculating CLVs (closing line values). If you understand positive EV gambling at all, you know that the primary goal (although not always), is to beat CLV. As long as you are doing that 70% or more of the time.... it is a mathematical fact that you will win in the long run. That part is true. However, OddsJam refuses to discuss, or explain the gory details behind how they are getting their CLVs. So while you think you are beating CLVs more than 70% of the time, you actually do not know if that is true.
Furthermore, if you truly are beating CLV that often, than it is virtually impossible... after a certain number of bets.... to be losing money. Think of it this way.... if you win $2 every time a coin comes up heads.... and you only lose $1 when it comes up tails, then you would win money in the long run. Certainly after 5 coin flips you might lose money. And after 20, 50, or 100 coin flips you might lose some money. But anybody who has the most basic understanding of probability and math, understands that after 500, 1000, 10000 coin flips, it would be virtually impossible to lose money on the aforementioned coin flip proposition.
The same holds true for positive EV betting, and beating the CLV. If you are beating the CLV 70% of the time or more, in the short term you could lose money, but in the long term it is virtually impossible. After 1000, 2000, 5000 bets, it is impossible to be down. The ONLY way to be losing in that coin flip scenario is if it were a weighted coin. And the only way to be losing in the positive EV scenario is if you are actually NOT beating the CLV 70% of the time or more.
So aside from the theoretical and mathematical analysis that proves this, I have personal experience proving this. Me and a friend signed up for OddsJam. We both have an extremely strong background in probability and mathematics. We both completely understand that positive EV betting can, and should work..... as long as you are TRULY beating CLV at a rate of 70% or more. The key is.... is the site that is giving you picks, using a functional algorithm that gives true CLV. There was no way to know that for sure with OddsJam, because they barely explain how they get CLV, and their staff doesn't understand it. So for $50 a month, we figured we'd check it out.
For a few months, it was up and down.... and it actually looked promising with some money won in there. but remember the old school scam.... if OddsJam gives a free month to enough customers, 1/2 of them will win some money and start paying the fees. so us winning for a few months was nice, but not nearly enough for long term confidence. And then it hit... the losses piled up. But my friend and I understand variance well enough that a bit of losing meant almost nothing. Remember... in the short term, you can lose some money on that amazing coin flip deal you were offered, but that doesn't man it is a bad bet.
Same goes for losing with OddsJam for a little bit. But the longer the losing goes on for, the more proof you have that the system does not work. OddsJam themselves had told us that the chances of being down money after 1000 bets, is only about a 5% chance. You can use a binomial calculator online to see this as well. So when I was down in a month in which I had placed 1200 bets, it was disconcerting, but not ridiculous.... I mean after all, a 5% chance is not unbelievable to have it happen.
But then a second month passed, in which I had 1100 bets, and I lost money that month too. The chances of back to back months in the red are 5% x 5% ... or about a 1/400 chance. Still not impossible, although unlikely. But finally, I had a 3rd month in a row... with 1100 bets again... and I came up losing in that month too. The chances of 3 months in a row in the red? 1 in 8000. Now you might say this is kind of crazy, but that is far from impossible. Well, you'd be right. But we've forgotten to include my friend who was also doing this separately. And wouldn't you know it, he had 3 months in a row of losing as well, with just shy of 1000 bets each month. This means the chances of him having that happen were also 1 in 8000. And that means the chances of it happening to both of us?.... a ridiculous 1 in 64,000,000. Yes, you are reading that correct..... a 1 in 64 million chance that we could have that much bad luck.
So what do you think is more probable? that 1 in 64 million thing happening, or that OddsJam is calculating CLV with completely poor methods?
I am happy to give much more detail and advice on this for anyone who wants it. But be VERY careful with OddsJam. I have some very interesting chats with the head of support at OddsJam, where they all but admit to not being totally sure if we should be using their recommended bets. Things were said, and I quote, like:
" From what we are seeing, not betting FanDuel and Caesars right now, might be best, "
and when I asked about some bets that THEY recommended to me, they said:
" You are betting very obscure markets with both of these and the lines are likely going to move throughout the day with very little being bet by other sports bettors because they are very obscure. "
and the main customer service rep himself does not even use the recommended bets, he specifically said:
" I don't personally bet 1Q or any quarter plays. I have found too much variance in them to stick with it. "
And finally, when asked about the formulas to create recommended bets, the #! service rep over there said:
" I know nothing about the formula or any of the engineering behind the bets we show. "
So yeah.... that is OddsJam. Not good.
Submitted by "gmish4444"
on 3/26/2024
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