NFL WEEK 6 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears in London

Fri, Oct 11, 2024
by SetTheNarrative.cappertek.com

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears in London: A Tight Contest, but Home Turf Favors the Jags

Score Prediction: JAX 20 – 20 CHI

When you see a 20-20 predicted score like this, it’s a sign that the game is going to be a nail-biter. Both teams are evenly matched based on my model, with the Jaguars holding just a 2-point advantage in Offensive Power Rating (OPR). But here's the key factor in this game—London is like a second home for Jacksonville. The Jags have been playing there for years, and that home-away-from-home feel is something Trevor Lawrence and his squad can lean on.

Quarterback Matchup: Trevor Lawrence vs. Caleb Williams

A bad Trevor Lawrence is good enough for the Jaguars, and the key for Chicago rookie Caleb Williams will be to play mistake-free football. The Bears will bring a heavy run game, likely giving their running back over 22 carries to keep the pressure off Williams. But with the tight score prediction, it’s not just about yards and carries—it’s about who makes the fewest mistakes.

What the Model Says: In matchups where my model predicts a close score, if the OPR difference is less than 2 points, the home team usually has the edge. In this case, “home” is London, and that works in favor of the Jaguars.

Conclusion: While Caleb Williams will need his best game of the season to give Chicago a shot, the combination of Jacksonville’s London advantage and Lawrence’s experience should give the Jaguars the win.

Betting Insight: The spread currently favors the Bears by 1 point, with the over/under set at 44.5. Given the defensive battle and lower-scoring projection, the best play here could be betting the under. The Jaguars should edge it out in the end, especially in their London “home.”