Week 1 NFL Picks: Fistful of Predictions

Wed, Sep 4, 2019
by CapperTek

It looks like we’ve finally made it! Unless the end of the world stops the planet from spinning, the 2019 NFL football season is upon us.

So, now let’s look at the odds from the best sportsbooks and find a few NFL Picks.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears -3

Normally the first game of the season opens with the Super Bowl winner. Not this year. This is a special event. It’s the 199th meeting between these two storied franchises in the inaugural game of the 100th season of the NFL.

Normally, I would completely lay off a potentially bad team in the Green Bay Packers, with a new head coach sporting control issues with the QB, going against a good team in the Chicago Bears. But the circumstance makes for an even more intense rivalry game. For those of us that took the Packers back when the line was still +4, I have a lot of confidence. Now that the Line is at three points, there is not much point in playing the spread. I do believe the Packers will keep it close, but we don’t play for the push.

Signs from the Packers trends point towards an OVER. But the Bears offense is still working out the kinks, and their defense is phenomenal. During the last five games of 2018, the Bears defense allowed an average of just 12.6 points per game and didn’t allow more than 17. That high number was to non-other than Green Bay.

So I am taking UNDER 46.5.

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Over the last ten meetings, KC has won six out of ten against the Jags and covered the spread the same number of times as well. This number looks a lot better when we look at recent history. The Chiefs have covered the spread in four of their last five against the Jags.

The Jaguars have a definitive home-field advantage; it’s going to be hot. It’s looking to be around 95-degrees on game day, which could leave the milder-climate Chiefs panting in the heat. That said, it has been pretty warm over in Kansas City the last couple of weeks, so it may not affect them too severely. The more significant concern is the fact that Doug Marrone pounded their way to the Conference Championship game last season.

But Tyreek Hill is probably for the game and the Jags have a laundry list of injuries. Plus the Chiefs have had fantastic success against the AFC South, winning five of seven. I believe Mahomes and crew will win by a touchdown in Jacksonville, despite how wonderfully the Jaguars played last season.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots -6

The Patriots are still a well-oiled machine, but they have taken a lot of hits over the last two offseasons are not the same talent-laden unit that they once were. The Pats have won and covered the spread on two out of the previous three meetings. But the Steelers got the backdoor cover every time in 2018, going 4-0 as road-dogs.

This is another game where hopefully, you got on it early. The line was at 6.5, and there is a lot of value on the Steelers at this price. Most spots have the line dipping all the way down to -5.5 by now, but Bovada still has the number at 6. The consensus is even at 50-50, so wiseguys must be laying some serious dough on the Steelers to cover. And I must admit, I agree with them. This is going to be a close game, and although I’m loathe to suggest you take +6 (instead of +6.5), I still think the Steelers will cover. The Steelers are free of all of the locker room drama that they had last season and are coming into 2019 with a massive chip on their shoulder.

Take the Steelers to cover +6