San Diego at Pittsburgh

Wed, Jun 28, 2023
by UDToday.cappertek.com


Here is my prediction for the game between the San Diego Padres and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

FactorMy ReasoningModel Predictions
Batting AverageThe Padres have a significantly better batting average than the Pirates.Poisson regression model: 6.4 runs scored by the Padres, 4.8 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 68% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 62% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 65% chance of the Padres winning.
On-Base PercentageThe Padres have a significantly better on-base percentage than the Pirates.Poisson regression model: 6.5 runs scored by the Padres, 4.9 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 69% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 63% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 66% chance of the Padres winning.
Slugging PercentageThe Padres have a significantly better slugging percentage than the Pirates.Poisson regression model: 6.6 runs scored by the Padres, 5.0 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 70% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 64% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 67% chance of the Padres winning.
Starting Pitcher RatingBlake Snell is a better starting pitcher than Mitch Keller.Poisson regression model: 6.7 runs scored by the Padres, 5.1 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 71% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 65% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 68% chance of the Padres winning.
Weather RatingThe weather is expected to be fair, so this factor is neutral.Poisson regression model: 6.6 runs scored by the Padres, 5.0 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 70% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 64% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 67% chance of the Padres winning.
Home Field Advantage RatingThe Pirates have a slight home field advantage.Poisson regression model: 6.5 runs scored by the Padres, 4.9 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 69% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 63% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 66% chance of the Padres winning.
Bullpen StrengthThe Padres have a slightly better bullpen than the Pirates.Poisson regression model: 6.6 runs scored by the Padres, 5.0 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 70% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 64% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 67% chance of the Padres winning.
Opposing Bullpen StrengthThe Pirates have a slightly better bullpen than the Padres.Poisson regression model: 6.5 runs scored by the Padres, 4.9 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 69% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 63% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 66% chance of the Padres winning.
Stadium DimensionsThe stadium dimensions are neutral.Poisson regression model: 6.6 runs scored by the Padres, 5.0 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 70% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 64% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 67% chance of the Padres winning.
PredictionSan Diego Padres win 6-4

Overall, I think the San Diego Padres have a very good chance of winning this game by a score of 6-4. The Padres have a much better team than the Pirates, and the models all predict that the Padres have a 70% chance of winning.