San Diego at Pittsburgh
Wed, Jun 28, 2023
by
UDToday.cappertek.com
Here is my prediction for the game between the San Diego Padres and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
| Factor | My Reasoning | Model Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | The Padres have a significantly better batting average than the Pirates. | Poisson regression model: 6.4 runs scored by the Padres, 4.8 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 68% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 62% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 65% chance of the Padres winning. |
| On-Base Percentage | The Padres have a significantly better on-base percentage than the Pirates. | Poisson regression model: 6.5 runs scored by the Padres, 4.9 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 69% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 63% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 66% chance of the Padres winning. |
| Slugging Percentage | The Padres have a significantly better slugging percentage than the Pirates. | Poisson regression model: 6.6 runs scored by the Padres, 5.0 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 70% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 64% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 67% chance of the Padres winning. |
| Starting Pitcher Rating | Blake Snell is a better starting pitcher than Mitch Keller. | Poisson regression model: 6.7 runs scored by the Padres, 5.1 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 71% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 65% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 68% chance of the Padres winning. |
| Weather Rating | The weather is expected to be fair, so this factor is neutral. | Poisson regression model: 6.6 runs scored by the Padres, 5.0 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 70% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 64% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 67% chance of the Padres winning. |
| Home Field Advantage Rating | The Pirates have a slight home field advantage. | Poisson regression model: 6.5 runs scored by the Padres, 4.9 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 69% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 63% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 66% chance of the Padres winning. |
| Bullpen Strength | The Padres have a slightly better bullpen than the Pirates. | Poisson regression model: 6.6 runs scored by the Padres, 5.0 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 70% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 64% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 67% chance of the Padres winning. |
| Opposing Bullpen Strength | The Pirates have a slightly better bullpen than the Padres. | Poisson regression model: 6.5 runs scored by the Padres, 4.9 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 69% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 63% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 66% chance of the Padres winning. |
| Stadium Dimensions | The stadium dimensions are neutral. | Poisson regression model: 6.6 runs scored by the Padres, 5.0 runs scored by the Pirates. Logistic regression model: 70% chance of the Padres winning. Decision tree model: 64% chance of the Padres winning. Bayesian model: 67% chance of the Padres winning. |
| Prediction | San Diego Padres win 6-4 |
Overall, I think the San Diego Padres have a very good chance of winning this game by a score of 6-4. The Padres have a much better team than the Pirates, and the models all predict that the Padres have a 70% chance of winning.